The international financial institution praises resilience but points to a high risk of debt distress.
International Monetary Fund (IMF) staff concluded their mission to Cameroon on February 13, 2026, as part of the Article IV consultations. Led by Christine Dieterich, the team visited the country from January 29 to February 12 to assess recent developments and macroeconomic prospects. The final report will be submitted to the institution’s Executive Board at the end of March.
The diagnosis is mixed. Cameroon’s economy has shown “considerable resilience” in the face of successive external shocks, but growth remains moderate. After 3,5 % in 2024, it is expected to slow to 3,1 % in 2025, penalized by post-election tensions that disrupted trade, services, and investment. Inflation, on the other hand, continues its decline, at an average of 3,4 % over twelve months in December 2025.
The external position has weakened. The current account deficit is expected to widen to 3,9 % of GDP in 2025, compared to 3,3 % a year earlier, driven notably by a decline in oil exports. Cameroon’s contribution to CEMAC regional reserves, however, remained overall stable, thanks to external borrowing contracted at market conditions.
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On the fiscal front, 2025 marks a halt. The overall deficit would reach about 2 % of GDP, compared to 1,5 % in 2024. The non-oil primary deficit would deteriorate to 2,6 % of GDP, well beyond the initial target (1,4 %). The cause: non-oil revenues lower than expected and slippages in current spending, even as investment execution faces delays. Short-term financing pressures remain high, and the sustainability analysis confirms a high risk of debt distress. Uncertainties persist regarding potential arrears or extra-budgetary spending.
The outlook is nevertheless considered “cautiously favorable”. Growth would rebound to 3,3 % in 2026, driven by public investment and the easing of uncertainties, then exceed 4 % from 2028, as energy bottlenecks are resolved. In the medium term, it could reach 4,6 % in 2031, supported by mining diversification. Inflation would fall to 2,9 % in 2026 and stabilize around 2,5 %.
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The IMF welcomes the more restrictive orientation of the 2026 budget, which targets a deficit of 1,7 % of GDP, in line with regional criteria. But risks remain high: weakening of regional reserves, liquidity tensions, debt market vulnerabilities, commodity price volatility, rising global rates, declining international aid, not to mention security and climate challenges.
The institution recommends accelerating structural reforms: improving access to financing, better planning and execution of investments, increased use of concessional financing for infrastructure, increased mobilization of non-oil revenues, operationalization of the Treasury Single Account, and deepening of the regional government securities market. It also insists on strengthening public financial management, the gradual clearance of arrears, and the implementation of the recommendations from the 2023 governance assessment, particularly regarding the fight against corruption.
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