The IMF foresees an economic rebound as early as 2026, supported by public investment. But between commodity volatility, financial constraints, and structural challenges, the trajectory remains fragile.
After a year 2025 marked by a slowdown, the Cameroonian economy could regain some momentum. Growth is expected at 3,3 % in 2026, driven notably by the revival of public investment and the dynamism of certain sectors such as mining and energy. In the longer term, projections point to an increase of around 4,6 %, a sign of real potential.
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But this improvement remains surrounded by uncertainty. The country remains heavily dependent on commodity exports, whose prices fluctuate according to international markets. The expected drop in cocoa prices, combined with an erosion of oil revenues, could further widen the current account deficit, expected to exceed 5 % of GDP as early as 2026.
Added to this are growing financial risks. The tightening of borrowing conditions globally complicates access to financing, even as significant debt maturities approach. The IMF recommends prioritizing concessional financing and avoiding costly commercial borrowing, while integrating a credible plan for settling arrears.
The challenges are not only economic. Security issues, the effects of climate change and the fragilities of the banking sector, notably the weight of non-performing loans, also weigh on the outlook.
In this context, the institution calls for accelerating structural reforms: improving governance, budget transparency, reform of public enterprises and modernization of the financial sector. These are all levers considered essential for the emergence of sustainable growth, driven more by the private sector.
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